Bitcoin’s post-halving performance in 2024 has been marked by a notable delay in reaching new all-time highs, a first in its historical price cycles. Despite expectations that Bitcoin would follow its usual upward trajectory after halving events, the cryptocurrency remains about 10% below its previous all-time high of $73,800, set in March 2024. Analyst Peter Brandt highlights that, unlike past cycles, Bitcoin has not yet breached its previous peak, making this the longest period Bitcoin has taken to resume price discovery after a halving.
Brandt attributes this sluggish performance to what he describes as a “lack of energy” in the market, citing the current price’s failure to break the $69,000 resistance level, which still holds significant weight, particularly when adjusted for inflation. His analysis measures Bitcoin cycles differently from most, starting at the last bear market low in November 2022 rather than solely focusing on post-halving movements. As a result, the market remains in a prolonged consolidation phase without significant upward momentum.
Additionally, broader macroeconomic factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s stagnation. Despite expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut in mid-September 2024, on-chain analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price action will remain “frustrating” throughout the year. Some forecasts even suggest that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut could push Bitcoin down by as much as 20%, further delaying a potential breakout.
While the market awaits clearer signals of a bull run, many investors are advised to exercise patience, with hopes pinned on a more significant price recovery in 2025.